As of 30, steel prices may present a weak downward trend, steel composite price index fell 1.83% y/y.Points varieties, long products prices fell by 2.71%, flat material price index fell 0.81%.Iron ore prices also dropped significantly, iron ore comprehensive price index fell 7.27% y/y, import ore prices fell 7.11%, domestic ore prices fell 7.36%, in line with expectations last month.June steel market outlook, in the "steel prices, ultra falls, steel supply and demand better and positive policy effect is gradually revealed", is expected to rebound in steel prices.

First of all, the current steel prices have been fully absorbing the macro negative, even some "excessive" reaction.On May 23, steel composite price index of 3473 absolutely, has hit a nearly five years (on April 10, 2009 index lowest) since 3466, more than 2013 nadir (June 28, 3595) also 122, less than 2012 nadir (September 7, 3552) is lower 79 points.Steel price is in the social stock 16.91 million tons last year, 4.941% overnight interest rates rebound, but this year on May 30, social inventory has dropped to 14.24 million tons of steel, overnight interest rates to 2.57%.Even when the steel plant inventory into consideration, in crude steel production growth close to 3% or so of the background, the steel inventory and social inventory fell by nearly 10%, the sum of demand so far this year is ok.But the rebar in the social stock fell as much as 21.36% of the cases, the price has dropped 8.11%, under the condition of hot rolling stock dropped 29.52% in society, prices fell by 2.96%.Reduced obviously, the fixed asset investment growth, particularly in real estate investment growth rate decrease as well as the new starting area (such as negative influence, despite the impact strength of steel consumption is not big, but the impact on steel prices, is one of the more significant, even further to digest part of the adverse impact of future expectations.

Second, June steel supply and demand is expected to be improved further.If the stock has dropped below 14 million tons steel society, part of the market, shortage of some varieties likely, in addition to the guangzhou, xi 'an, hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, changchun and other prices leading city rebar inventories relatively larger year-on-year decline, especially in xi 'an, fell has reached 289000 tons, is expected to take the lead in rebound.And Shanghai, music from three hot rolled products distribution center inventory, tianjin also decreased respectively compared to the 444400 tons, 256000 tons, 256000 tons, decline reached 39%, 28.5% and 28.5%, respectively.Once the steel stocks also fell to below 14 million tons, should speak, the pressure of the steel mills will be mitigated, have rise in price.Looked from the current supply and tangshan billet stocks continued to decline to 401000 tons of low, tang shan area 154 blast furnace capacity utilization is only 89.54%, 163 steel mills of the blast furnace capacity utilization also maintain at 88.12%, are falling.Steel supply in April and may, therefore, may be, is expected to also may be in 6 month almost a level.In addition, from the perspective of the demand for HSBC PMI off-season improved markedly, the new orders index and export orders index rose 2.7 and 2, respectively, short-term demand still can.If current social inventory to change speed, early June steel social inventory is likely to enter the 14 million tons the following levels, and steel stocks generally and at the beginning of the end of the month to speed is relatively fast, therefore, is expected to be at the end of the early June to the level of 14 million tons the following.If the steel supply and demand relations have improved further in June, the basis for rising steel prices.

Again, macro positive policies are further fall to the ground, its effect is gradually transformed into reality by expectations.From the beginning of April tax cuts, turn shantytowns into new housing areas, and increase investment in railway;The integration of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region, the Yangtze river economic belt development and launch of 80 key projects;To introduce "the nine" emphasizes the financial support the development of the entity, the CDB special financial bonds issued residence, and issued 400 billion local government debt, including spontaneous from 10 provinces and cities are, on May 30, a meeting of the state council calls for expanding the directional quasi and refinancing, regulate trade development at the same time.Intensify "directional drop" measures, calling for "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", small micro enterprises conform to the need of structural adjustment and to meet the market demand of the real economy reaches a certain proportion of banking financial institutions loans reduced reserve requirements.Because the state has adopted a series of timely preset and fine-tune the stimulus, although in some parts of falling house prices, trust default, firms have run phenomenon, but did not appear a wide range of similar phenomenon, always in a state of control.In addition, funds expected to remain tight in June, but because of the central bank branch policy combination has layout in advance, so the paper, such as finance, Treasury bonds interest rate to return to the downside, capital takes up relatively low cost.It is reported that new projects also gradually increased, 6 large power generation group on mid to late may increase in coal consumption, real estate policy might be loose, sales decline narrowed and stabilize the situation.

In June, in short, steel market, the author thinks that, in the macroscopic policy gradually to the ground and started to produce results, steel supply and demand relations, as well as the role of financial market rebound, the steel price is expected to rebound, the raw material price will follow.

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